Last month, Fortune reached out to real estate research firm CoreLogic to see if it would provide its assessment of the nation’s largest regional housing markets. CoreLogic looked at 392 U.S. markets in April and found that 17 regional housing markets had a greater than 40% chance of seeing local home prices decline over the next 12 months.
CoreLogic, put regional housing markets into one of five categories, grouped by the likelihood that home prices in that particular market will fall over the coming 12 months. (Note: The groupings are different this month than the ones CoreLogic used in April). Here are the groupings used for the May analysis:
•Very high: Over 70% chance of a price dip
•High: 50–70% chance
•Medium: 40-50% chance
•Low: 20–40% chance
Very Low: 0–20% chance
Among the 392 regional housing markets that CoreLogic measured, 144 ranked in the “very low” risk grouping. Another 177 housing markets landed in the “low” group, 44 markets qualified for the “medium” group, and 22 markets crept into the “high” group.
CoreLogic categorized only four markets as having a “very high” likelihood of a price drop: Bend, Ore., Prescott, Ariz., Lake Havasu City, Ariz., and Bridgeport, Conn. (i.e. Fairfield County, Conn.).
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