Last fall when people were still expecting mortgage rates to be falling this year, it was common to assume rates would be in the low 6s or 5s this year and people asked me if lower rates would bring a flood of inventory.
The suspicion was that there were a bunch of sellers who were waiting to sell: Once rates fell these sellers would come rushing back to this real estate market and we’d finally see inventory grow. The implicit fear was that we’d see maybe too much inventory and that lower mortgage rates would therefore cause home prices to fall.
The only way inventory would grow in 2024 is if mortgage rates climbed. At the time last autumn, that was a shocking statement. First, because everyone assumed rates would come down by now. Second, because people think of home sellers as being locked-in by high interest rates. What homeowner is going to give up a 3% mortgage to get a new home with a 7% mortgage?
Inventory stats
Looking at last week’s numbers:
•There are now just over 500,000 single family homes on the market in the U.S.
•That’s up a half percent from last week and is now 21% more than a year ago.
•There are 100,000 more single family homes on the market than there were in March of last year.
•Unless mortgage rates fall from here, then by July, we could have 40% more homes on the market than a year ago.
Precios de la vivienda
El precio medio de las casas unifamiliares en los EE. UU. es ahora de 432.000 dólares. Eso es un medio por ciento más que la semana pasada y solo un 1% más que hace un año. Este es el precio de venta de todas las casas en el mercado en los EE. UU.
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