Over the past couple of years, the US economy has wrung out inflation like dirty mop water from just about every sector — except for the housing market, which remains paralyzed by high prices and chronically low supply.
But the action that could help solve America’s home affordability crisis could potentially make it worse. To understand why, let’s take a look at how we got here.
At the core of the housing puzzle is a supply and demand imbalance. It’s Econ 101: There are more people ready to buy than there are houses for sale. That was true even before the pandemic came along and sent demand through the roof. The market had become all but impenetrable after mortgage rates went from historic lows in 2020 to their highest levels in a generation last year.
When the Federal Reserve (almost certainly) starts to cut rates Wednesday, it should, in theory, shake the market loose.
But a lot depends on how aggressively the central bank moves to bring borrowing costs down across the board.
If the Fed reverses course as aggressively as it raised rates, financing costs would go down, creating a flood of inventory of existing homes and taking some heat off prices.
But a slower, more gradual easing might not do much to jolt owners, especially those who secured those early-pandemic-era, less-than-3% mortgages, to move. That’s especially true when American home prices remain at a record high.
That’s part of the supply problem.
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